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Competitive landscape and assortment optimization

Assortments do not exist in a vacuum. Competitors' assortments determine where the opportunities are. Optimal assortment optimization factors in what competitors offer and where unoccupied positions exist.

Most TURF analyses look only at the company's own assortment. They ask which combination of our products maximizes our reach. But the consumer does not choose only among your products — they choose among all available alternatives in the category. An assortment that looks optimal in isolation can be pointless if competitors already cover the same needs.

Competition-integrated assortment optimization maps the entire available landscape and identifies white spaces — segments or needs that no one covers. It changes the optimization function from "maximize our reach" to "maximize our incremental reach given what competitors offer".

Reflect always conducts assortment analyses in their competitive context. We map competitor positions, measure consumers' perception of the entire available range, and identify positions where a new product creates genuinely new reach — not just moves volume from own products.

Key takeaways

  • Assortments exist in a competitive landscape, not in a vacuum
  • The consumer chooses among all alternatives in the category
  • White spaces in the competitive landscape are the real opportunities
  • Incremental reach vs absolute reach changes the recommendation
  • Cannibalization risk against both own and competitor products

Example

A brewery group planned a new beer. TURF within their own assortment pointed to pale lager. But competitive analysis showed that pale lager was the most overcrowded segment. A positioning as session IPA — with lower internal reach but minimal competition — proved significantly more profitable.

Related articles

What is TURF analysis?

TURF (Total Unduplicated Reach and Frequency) is a method for selecting the combination of products or variants that reaches the most unique consumers. It answers the question: which X products should we carry to maximize the share of potential buyers?

Limits of traditional TURF

Traditional TURF has three fundamental limitations: it maximizes reach instead of volume, the greedy algorithm can miss better combinations, and it ignores cannibalization between products.

From reach to volume

Reach tells you how many you reach. Volume tells you how much you sell. Assortment optimization should aim for volume, and that requires factoring in purchase frequency, conversion and cannibalization.

Advanced TURF: hybrid optimization

Advanced TURF combines exhaustive search, swap optimization and reverse pruning to find better solutions than the greedy algorithm. It is computationally intensive but delivers provably better assortments.

Volume-based TURF

Volume-based TURF weights not just who is reached but how much each person is expected to buy. It gives assortment recommendations that maximize actual sales instead of number of consumers reached.

How simulation improves assortment decisions

Simulation lets you test assortment changes before implementing them. By modeling how consumers redistribute their choices when changes occur, you can predict the effect of adding, removing or replacing products.

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