Volume-based TURF
Volume-based TURF weights not just who is reached but how much each person is expected to buy. It gives assortment recommendations that maximize actual sales instead of number of consumers reached.
In standard TURF, every reached consumer contributes equally. That is democratic but commercially naive. A person who accepts a product but rarely buys it contributes minimally to sales. A loyal heavy buyer with strong preference contributes many times over. Volume-based TURF weights each consumer by an expected purchase value.
The weights can come from self-reported purchase frequency, actual transaction data, or a modeled purchase probability based on preference intensity. Reflect often combines acceptance data with a conversion model — not just "do you accept?" but "how likely are you to actually buy, and how often?".
The result is assortments that look different compared to reach maximization. Niche products with passionate followers can win slots over broad products with lukewarm acceptance. It requires more data but produces significantly better commercial outcomes.
Key takeaways
- Volume weighting gives commercially more relevant assortments
- Purchase frequency and conversion are factored in per consumer
- Niche products with loyal buyers can beat broad products
- Requires acceptance + frequency measurement + conversion model
- Significantly better commercial outcomes than reach-TURF
Example
A dairy company compared reach-TURF and volume-TURF for its yogurt line. Reach-TURF recommended 6 flavors with 84% reach. Volume-TURF swapped 2 flavors: one with a narrow but loyal audience (protein) and one with high frequency (natural). Volume increased 7% over 6 months.
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