From reach to volume
Reach tells you how many you reach. Volume tells you how much you sell. Assortment optimization should aim for volume, and that requires factoring in purchase frequency, conversion and cannibalization.
The transition from reach to volume is the most important step in modern assortment optimization. Reach-based TURF treats all consumers equally — a person who "accepts" a product but buys it once a year counts the same as one who buys every week. That gives a skewed picture of the assortment's real potential.
Volume-based optimization weights each consumer by their expected purchase frequency and conversion rate. This means a product with narrower reach but stronger purchase intention can win over one with broad but shallow acceptance. It often changes the assortment recommendation markedly.
Reflect has built volume models that integrate acceptance data, frequency measurement and cannibalization matrices. We weight not just who is reached but how much each reached consumer is expected to contribute. The result is assortments that not only look good on reach metrics but actually generate maximum sales.
Key takeaways
- Reach measures count, volume measures sales potential
- Purchase frequency and conversion determine real value
- Broad products with low intention can underperform
- Volume weighting often changes the assortment recommendation
- Cannibalization matrices are required for correct volume modeling
Example
Two assortment alternatives were compared: A had 78% reach, B had 71% reach. Traditional TURF chose A. But B had a higher volume forecast (+9%) because its products had stronger purchase intention and less overlap. Actual results confirmed B as superior.
Discuss your assortment with us
Contact us